I’m not sure how long this video I found on YouTube will be up, but it is a fascinating watch! I’m struggling to understand my own reaction to it. On the one hand, this is every geek’s dream, a historic moment in artificial intelligence. On the other hand, it is frankly quite frightening. Even when Watson gets the wrong answer, the three possible answers it has ranked at the bottom of the screen seem to illuminate its thought process. It is clear that this technology will spread quickly and thoroughly over the next several years, improving and shrinking as it does. Will our mobile devices circa 2020 be a conversational agent tied into a sensor network, supporting our every whim? Before I watched this episode of Jeopardy I was hopeful. Now I am stunned, worried, and wondering if we should have been more careful about what we wished for…
“Virtually any job that now involves answering questions and conducting commercial transactions by telephone will soon be at risk.”
h+ Mafia? No.
What did Sarah Lacy of TechCrunch find when she took a look “Inside the DNA of the Facebook Mafia”? There is the same kind of “in the family” interactions between the various companies started by ex-Facebook employees as there are for the other technology mafia since the 1990s, but in addition there seems to be a shared world view and technology perspective. The Facebook Mafia does not just share DNA; it appears Mark Zuckerberg has been cloned multiple times!
Recently I have been thinking a lot about h+ and what impact it did or did not have. For those of you who don’t know, several friends and I started a transhumanist club at the University of Arizona in 2006. We grew quickly. I also took over a club in Phoenix and rebranded it as h+ Phoenix. For nearly three years the two clubs met regularly in their respective locations. I often traveled from Tucson to Phoenix for the monthly h+ Phoenix meetings.
Today these clubs are all but defunct; h+ Tucson has tried to restart a few times but we have not been able to reach the same threshold of members and enthusiasm we did back in 2006. Many of the members of h+ Tucson and h+ Phoenix have now migrated to the Bay Area or other destinations to continue educations, start companies, and otherwise participate in the emerging technologies revolution. Could these members be considered a h+ Mafia?
The answer is clearly “No”. The attributes Lacy outlines in her article do not apply to the former members of h+. While a few of them work together, there has been little entrepreneurial interaction beyond a flurry of activity soon after the diaspora began. The level of support between projects is not what you see in true technology mafia.
While transhumanists share enthusiasm for using technology to improve the human condition, this turns out not to be the kind of world view and technology perspective that would lead to the kinds of interactions between former members of an organization that Lacy lists. Thinking back to our meetings, there were clearly different world views in play. Although we were ostensibly sharing the same interests, our approaches to technology were in fact very, very different. Facebook benefited from a group of young software engineers who developed a passion and approach to technology you see reflected in Jumo, Asana, Quora, Path, and the other companies formed by Facebook alumni. The various projects by former h+ members are very different in their approach.
The members of h+ were not all software engineers. They were a diverse group of individuals from various backgrounds with different skill sets. The debates we had were not about software, but about things like consciousness, the right technologies to support, whether only an elite could or should benefit from these technologies, and others. Outside of the club and working on various transhumanist-related projects, a very few members found they could work together, but many others found they could not. There was a lot of drama heard on the grapevine over that first year when members started leaving h+ and taking on their own projects. Today, you find most of the members working on separate projects, with some friendly contact between former members but nothing like the family activity of a technology mafia.
There have been technology mafias from within the transhumanist community. Look no further than Immortality Institute. Several of the co-founders and leaders have gone on to important new projects, but in addition, they often support each other with funding, leadership, and other interactions that are every bit as impressive as the “in the family” activities of the Facebook or Paypal Mafias. Although the wider ImmInst community was very diverse in thought, the leaders of ImmInst tended to be on the same wavelength, and this has continued to play out in their post-ImmInst activities.
I am not suggesting that because they do not represent a h+ Mafia the former members of h+ are failures. In fact, they are unquestionably very successful! I am also not suggesting that we were not a family. At our height, the other members of h+ were about the only family I could tolerate! I am simply observing that the particular attributes that lead to technology mafias were not present in the h+ clubs, for some understandable reasons. The impact we had on transhumanism, and the world, is mostly still to be written, but it will not be as a mafia.
Valentine’s Day
Valentine’s Day is coming up and it is a holiday I detest. It is on my list of most horrible annual events, next to April Fool’s Day. Every Valentine’s Day I pretend very hard to not notice that it is occurring. However, in the spirit of openness and truthfulness - especially to myself - I admit this reaction is because I am terribly jealous.
You see, the most perfect thing in the world to me is two (okay, and sometimes three, but, hello, I’m not talking about porn!) people in love. Doesn’t your heart just soar to witness it? Most of my favorite movies are about people falling desperately, passionately, rightfully in love. But when it happens in real life? Oh, my goodness. Reality just has a level of complexity to falling in love - a grayscale of passion - that cannot be captured on film. Love is at once easy and difficult. It paradoxically falls into your lap when it seems like it is light years away. It requires something as simple as a glance and as complicated as a commitment. When my friends and family find love and are loved in return, I just know that all is right with the world, whether it works out or not. Most days of the year I’m just happy to be alive because I know that people fall in requited love.
Yet I have never experienced this. I know what unrequited love is. I know what happens when someone latches on to you because you have a sense of responsibility and money. I know what it means to go into debt for someone who will never feel that way about you. I know what it is like to meet cute, only to find you are a therapist to a suicidal drunk one week later. What I personally know of love is that it never seems to involve an “us”.
Yeah, I hear you: boohoo. “You’ve got to put yourself out there.” “Your expectations are too high.” “Put up an online ad.” “It will happen when you least expect it.”
I know that. You are right. But on Valentine’s Day expectation glows pink and red out of every advertisement, every card, every flower, every cheek, every heart. Everyone - on that day only - suddenly seems to care if you also have romantic plans for the evening. People look at you curiously, wondering why you are not a part of the day, wondering what is wrong with you, full of advice and side glances. I try to stay away from other people on February 14th until their good-intentioned but thoroughly annoying attention passes. On February 15th.
This year I vowed I would not become a grumpy old man or a cynic, even though I have spent the last few years trying to build a funny, curmudgeonly mask for myself. The grumpy old man beloved in fiction is in real life an asshole, and worse. I don’t want to wake up one day and discover that I am old, alone, and rejected by family and former friends because I am an utter asshole.
Instead I will become the kind of man who someone could fall in love with, the kind of man for whom I would fall: confident, educated, interesting, passionate, happy, of good humor, and skeptically awe-struck by everything. I’m part way there because of good friends who helped set me on a better path.
This Valentine’s Day, when everyone in the world seems to be celebrating with their significant other, I will remember that on every other day of the year I am very happy for them and not at all jealous. Love will be in the air, and if not for me, then I will take comfort in knowing that others are in love.
I will probably be studying, alone, this Valentine’s Day, but someday someone unexpected will recognize the worthwhile in me about the same time I recognize it in him. And how can I continue to be jealous knowing that that is in my future!?
So happy that this is not an “Alien” prequel (or sequel), but an original concept that may incidentally be set in the same universe. Also exciting that Damon Lindelof is involved.
Neill Blomkamp. Syd Mead. Jodie Foster. Matt Damon. Wow.
The link above is a bundle of several links to fundraisers for emerging technology-related organizations. Donations have risen significantly in the past two years as transhumanism, emerging technologies, and the Technological Singularity concept have reached mainstream audiences.
The list below is just a sample of the money raised in 2010 through donations for various emerging-technology related organizations. Several donation drives were matched dollar for dollar by generous grants. For example, the first $250,000 raised by The Seasteading Institute was matched by The Thiel Foundation, resulting in a cool half million and change to the organization!
- The Seasteading Institute: $250,265 (plus matching $250,000 donation)
- The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence: $121,616 (plus matching $125,000 donation if $125,000 raised by tomorrow, January 20, 2011)
- Foresight Institute: $30,000 (plus matching $30,000 donation)
- Lifeboat Foundation: $11,275 (plus matching donations for goal of $12,000)
Consider also BioCurious. Using Kickstarter, the organization successfully raised over $35,000 last year to develop a “hackerspace for biotech” in the Bay Area. What do numbers like these signify? More and more people are willing to open up their wallets to the organizations promoting the development and exploration of the consequences of these emerging technologies.
Less than five years ago these ideas were considered too fringe to be worthy of interest or donation. Something changed in the past couple of years. I personally attribute this to two developments:
- the shift in criticism from “that’s ridiculous” to “HOLY SHIT WE NEED TO STOP THIS!” and
- the migration of many transhumanists to northern California.
I expect even higher funding levels to emerging technology-related organizations in 2011 as the world economy recovers and awareness continues to go mainstream. Consider participating with your own donations in 2011 and bookmark the link bundle above; I will add more links as I come across them.
Prediction: 1080p Digital Media in 2011
Although a few companies already claim to stream 1080p video, Apple will announce 1080p television and movie downloads and streaming for purchase or rental through iTunes and Apple TV in the United States, sparking a rash of similar announcements from other digital media vendors like Amazon and Netflix. The H.264 video will play back at a bit rate between 8 and 12 mbps (Blu-ray video plays back at approximately 40 mbps.)
Expect pricing for 1080p movie purchases to be between $25 and $30 and rentals to be $5.99. Television shows will likely be priced for purchase at $3.99 per episodes and nearly $100 per season. Streaming TV episodes to Apple TV will likely cost $1.99 or $2.99 each. The amount of content available in 1080p will be limited at first, but will rapidly increase between 2012 and 2014. By 2014, 1080p video (perhaps with a bit rate comparable to Blu-ray) will become the standard format offered by Apple and prices may drop as a result.
A new Apple TV model in 2011 will be required to support 1080p streaming rentals, and will likely be announced at the same time Apple fires up their new data center. iPhone 5 and iPad 2 will likely also support 1080p video, though their respective displays will not reach a comparable resolution until the 2012 or later models.