I maintain a spreadsheet of predictions based on Moore’s laws and the trends I see in computing technologies. Today I reviewed my predictions and made necessary adjustments:
- Increased hard drive capacity from 0.40 to .50 by 07/01/04
- Decreased CPU speed from .0060 to .0040 by 07/01/04
Hard drive capacity is growing faster than I expected. So far, there is no word yet on when the first terabyte memory systems will reach commercial production, so I stick with my original prediction of an introduction early in 2006. CPU speeds are not increasing as quickly as I expected, but their complexity and density increases still follow Moore’s Law (speed is not considered a good indicator of a CPU’s abilities but has been an easy way to market advancement to consumers). With AMD’s Athlon64 doing extremely well and new technologies expected to hit Intel’s chipsets this summer, the recent perceived plateau in computing should come to a quick end.
I have not officially changed my predictions of expected highlights although I am very tempted to do so. Machine/Brain interfaces may come much sooner than I originally predicted, but there is an apparent lull in AI advancement.
In the technology cycle we are currently in a period of commercialization and normalization of existing technologies. Behind the scenes, research and development of advanced technologies continues as always and I expect 2006 to be an important commercialization year, much more so than even 2004 is shaping up to be. By 2006, terabyte memory systems should start revolutionizing how we use our computers, the Grid and the Mesh will both make important progress, and momentum will continue building for the second Internet revolution I see shaping up by the end of the decade.
|07/01/04||0.50||0||0.0040||0||Graphical, Voice||Multi-gigabyte versions of terabyte memory systems released|
|01/01/06||1.00||5||TB||0.0080||0||Voice, Graphical||Terabyte memory system replaces today’s memory subsystems|
|07/01/07||2.00||10||0.0160||0||Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic|
|01/01/09||4.00||20||0.0320||0||Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic||GRID and Mesh, computer size down to deck of cards|
|07/01/10||8.00||40||0.0640||0||Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic, 3-D|
|01/01/12||16.00||80||0.1280||1||THZ||3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic||Nano computers released, size shrinks from deck of cards to microscopic over next decade, AI entities emerge|
|07/01/13||32.00||160||0.2560||2||3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic|
|01/01/15||64.00||320||0.5120||4||3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, AI||AI/human general contact, AI-generated data feeds for humans|
|07/01/16||128.00||640||1.0240||8||AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic||Optical Nano and/or quantum computers released|
|01/01/18||256.00||1,280||PB||2.0480||16||AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, Brain interface||“Downhandling” of data to human brain, embedded microscopic super computers|
|07/01/19||512.00||2,560||4.0960||32||AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, Brain interface||AI/Brain interfaces replace all other interfaces (the rest become virtual interfaces used as necessary)|
|01/01/21||1024.00||5,120||8.1920||64||AI/Brain interface||AI/Brain interface bottleneck recognized, medical approaches and body enhancement attempted|
|07/01/22||2048.00||PB||10,240||16.3840||128||AI/Brain interface||Commercial nano asssemblers|