Computing Predictions – Update 05/04/04

I maintain a spreadsheet of predictions based on Moore’s laws and the trends I see in computing technologies. Today I reviewed my predictions and made necessary adjustments:

1. Increased hard drive capacity from 0.40 to .50 by 07/01/04
2. Decreased CPU speed from .0060 to .0040 by 07/01/04

Hard drive capacity is growing faster than I expected. So far, there is no word yet on when the first terabyte memory systems will reach commercial production, so I stick with my original prediction of an introduction early in 2006. CPU speeds are not increasing as quickly as I expected, but their complexity and density increases still follow Moore’s Law (speed is not considered a good indicator of a CPU’s abilities but has been an easy way to market advancement to consumers). With AMD’s Athlon64 doing extremely well and new technologies expected to hit Intel’s chipsets this summer, the recent perceived plateau in computing should come to a quick end.

I have not officially changed my predictions of expected highlights although I am very tempted to do so. Machine/Brain interfaces may come much sooner than I originally predicted, but there is an apparent lull in AI advancement.

In the technology cycle we are currently in a period of commercialization and normalization of existing technologies. Behind the scenes, research and development of advanced technologies continues as always and I expect 2006 to be an important commercialization year, much more so than even 2004 is shaping up to be. By 2006, terabyte memory systems should start revolutionizing how we use our computers, the Grid and the Mesh will both make important progress, and momentum will continue building for the second Internet revolution I see shaping up by the end of the decade.

Date	Hard Drive		Terabyte Memory		CPU			Nano CPU		Interface	Highlights
01/01/03	0.20	TB	0		0.0030	THz	64-bit	0		Graphical, Voice
07/01/04	0.50		0		0.0040			0		Graphical, Voice	Multi-gigabyte versions of terabyte memory systems released
01/01/06	1.00		5	TB	0.0080			0		Voice, Graphical	Terabyte memory system replaces today’s memory subsystems
07/01/07	2.00		10		0.0160			0		Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic
01/01/09	4.00		20		0.0320			0		Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic	GRID and Mesh, computer size down to deck of cards
07/01/10	8.00		40		0.0640			0		Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic, 3-D
01/01/12	16.00		80		0.1280			1	THZ	3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic	Nano computers released, size shrinks from deck of cards to microscopic over next decade, AI entities emerge
07/01/13	32.00		160		0.2560			2		3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic
01/01/15	64.00		320		0.5120			4		3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, AI	AI/human general contact, AI-generated data feeds for humans
07/01/16	128.00		640		1.0240			8		AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic	Optical Nano and/or quantum computers released
01/01/18	256.00		1,280	PB	2.0480			16		AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, Brain interface	“Downhandling” of data to human brain, embedded microscopic super computers
07/01/19	512.00		2,560		4.0960			32		AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, Brain interface	AI/Brain interfaces replace all other interfaces (the rest become virtual interfaces used as necessary)
01/01/21	1024.00		5,120		8.1920			64		AI/Brain interface	AI/Brain interface bottleneck recognized, medical approaches and body enhancement attempted
07/01/22	2048.00	PB	10,240		16.3840			128		AI/Brain interface	Commercial nano asssemblers
01/01/24	4096.00		20,480		32.7680			256
07/01/25	8192.00		40,960		65.5360			512
01/01/27	16384.00		81,920		131.0720			1,024	PHz
07/01/28	32768.00		163,840		262.1440			2,048
01/01/30	65536.00		327,680		524.2880			4,096
07/01/31	131072.00		655,360		1048.5760	PHz		8,192
01/01/33	262144.00		1,310,720		2097.1520			16,384		Singularity
07/01/34	524288.00		2,621,440		4194.3040			32,768
01/01/36	1048576.00		5,242,880		8388.6080			65,536
07/01/37	2097152.00		10,485,760		16777.2160			131,072