Computing Predictions – Update 05/04/04

I maintain a spreadsheet of predictions based on Moore’s laws and the trends I see in computing technologies. Today I reviewed my predictions and made necessary adjustments:

  1. Increased hard drive capacity from 0.40 to .50 by 07/01/04
  2. Decreased CPU speed from .0060 to .0040 by 07/01/04

Hard drive capacity is growing faster than I expected. So far, there is no word yet on when the first terabyte memory systems will reach commercial production, so I stick with my original prediction of an introduction early in 2006. CPU speeds are not increasing as quickly as I expected, but their complexity and density increases still follow Moore’s Law (speed is not considered a good indicator of a CPU’s abilities but has been an easy way to market advancement to consumers). With AMD’s Athlon64 doing extremely well and new technologies expected to hit Intel’s chipsets this summer, the recent perceived plateau in computing should come to a quick end.

I have not officially changed my predictions of expected highlights although I am very tempted to do so. Machine/Brain interfaces may come much sooner than I originally predicted, but there is an apparent lull in AI advancement.

In the technology cycle we are currently in a period of commercialization and normalization of existing technologies. Behind the scenes, research and development of advanced technologies continues as always and I expect 2006 to be an important commercialization year, much more so than even 2004 is shaping up to be. By 2006, terabyte memory systems should start revolutionizing how we use our computers, the Grid and the Mesh will both make important progress, and momentum will continue building for the second Internet revolution I see shaping up by the end of the decade.

Date

Hard Drive

 

Terabyte Memory

 

CPU

  

Nano CPU

 

Interface

Highlights

01/01/030.20TB00.0030THz64-bit0Graphical, Voice
07/01/040.5000.00400Graphical, VoiceMulti-gigabyte versions of terabyte memory systems released
01/01/061.005TB0.00800Voice, GraphicalTerabyte memory system replaces today’s memory subsystems
07/01/072.00100.01600Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic
01/01/094.00200.03200Voice, Graphical, Gesture, HapticGRID and Mesh, computer size down to deck of cards
07/01/108.00400.06400Voice, Graphical, Gesture, Haptic, 3-D
01/01/1216.00800.12801THZ3-D, Voice, Gesture, HapticNano computers released, size shrinks from deck of cards to microscopic over next decade, AI entities emerge
07/01/1332.001600.256023-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic
01/01/1564.003200.512043-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, AIAI/human general contact, AI-generated data feeds for humans
07/01/16128.006401.02408AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, HapticOptical Nano and/or quantum computers released
01/01/18256.001,280PB2.048016AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, Brain interface“Downhandling” of data to human brain, embedded microscopic super computers
07/01/19512.002,5604.096032AI, 3-D, Voice, Gesture, Haptic, Brain interfaceAI/Brain interfaces replace all other interfaces (the rest become virtual interfaces used as necessary)
01/01/211024.005,1208.192064AI/Brain interfaceAI/Brain interface bottleneck recognized, medical approaches and body enhancement attempted
07/01/222048.00PB10,24016.3840128AI/Brain interfaceCommercial nano asssemblers
01/01/244096.0020,48032.7680256
07/01/258192.0040,96065.5360512
01/01/2716384.0081,920131.07201,024PHz
07/01/2832768.00163,840262.14402,048
01/01/3065536.00327,680524.28804,096
07/01/31131072.00655,3601048.5760PHz8,192
01/01/33262144.001,310,7202097.152016,384Singularity
07/01/34524288.002,621,4404194.304032,768
01/01/361048576.005,242,8808388.608065,536
07/01/372097152.0010,485,76016777.2160131,072
Richard Leis

Richard Leis

Richard Leis (he/him/his) lives in Tucson, Arizona where he writes poetry and fiction, attends and teaches writing workshops at the Writers Studio Tucson, and works for HiRISE, a team in the Lunar & Planetary Laboratory at the University of Arizona with a camera in orbit around Mars onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

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